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# Category Archives: Interplanetary space physics (including cosmic ray physics)

## Single-spacecraft Identification of Flux Tubes and Current Sheets in the Solar Wind

### Papers from SWICo members

F. Pecora, A. Greco, Q. Hu, S. Servidio, A. Chasapis, W. H. Matthaeus

Authors:

In this work we present a novel technique, based on two consolidated models, for describing and visualising the local topology of the magnetic field solar wind using single-spacecraft data. The Grad-Shafranov (GS) reconstruction method provides a two-dimensional map of the magnetic field surrounding the spacecraft trajectory, while the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) technique is able to identify coherent magnetic structures, such as current sheets. We applied this combined technique to one month of magnetic field data measured by Wind satellite at 1 AU. In this stream we selected the flux rope events, that are structures with cylindrical symmetry and a relatively strong magnetic field along the symmetry axis. These flux tubes are quite large structures (a fraction of AU) and have a complex inner structure and they interact each other while moving in the Solar Wind.

These inner and outer interactions can possibly generate sites of magnetic reconnection where strong current sheets appear. What we observed from the reconstruction is that a quasi-two-dimensional turbulence emerges as a sea of nested magnetic islands with current sheets located mostly at their boundaries. The method shows great promise for visualising and analysing single-spacecraft data from missions such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter, as well as 1 AU SpaceWeather monitors such as ACE, Wind, and IMAP.

**Publication**: Pecora F., Greco A., Hu Q., Servidio S., Chasapis A. G., Matthaeus W. H., 2019, ApJL, 881, L11. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ab32d9

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/ab32d9

## Forecasting the 2018 February 12th CME propagation with the P-DBM model: a fast warning procedure

### Papers from SWICo members

Authors:

Dario Del Moro, Gianluca Napoletano, Roberta Forte, Luca Giovannelli, Ermanno Pietropaolo, Francesco Berrilli

The forecast of the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high−technology society and for the Earth’s upper atmosphere status and LEO satellites. We realized a procedure based on the Drag−Based Model which uses probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, and allows the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. The P−DBM belongs to a family of models that apply a somewhat simplified description of the main interaction the ICME is subject to during its interplanetary journey. The drag−based models (DBMs) assume that beyond a certain heliospheric distance, a simple aerodynamic drag equation can describe the interaction between the ICME and the solar

wind environment.

Ensemble modeling incorporate the intrinsic limitation of information due to measure errors or due to the lack of measure at all, in form of probability distributions. In practice, instead of a single run to forecast an ICME propagation, a set of runs, driven with input parameters extracted from suitable distributions are used to retrieve a distribution of output parameters. We tested this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, obtaining extremely promising results.

We realized a real−time implementation of this algorithm which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to provide early warning for those CME approaching Earth. We present the results of this real−time fast warning procedure for the case of the 2018 February 12th

CME.

**Publication**: DEL MORO, Dario et al. Forecasting the 2018 February 12th CME propagation with the P-DBM model: a fast warning procedure. **Annals of Geophysics**, [S.l.], v. 62, n. 4, p. GM456, dec. 2019. ISSN 2037-416X.

https://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/7750